Latest validated WW3Risk
PROVISIONAL
83.9
/100
SEVERE
Observed 31 Aug 2026
Historical context
83.9 can be compared with the fixed historical reference distribution; p90 is 79.7 and p95 is 88.4.
Historical p9079.7
Latest reading83.9
Historical p9588.4
Reference: 6,087 complete daily observations
What this measures
How close are we to World War 3?
WW3Risk is a 0–100 index of observed international strategic conditions associated with escalation toward major-power conflict and wider war. It describes current conditions, not the probability or timing of a future war.
Use WW3Risk to compare World War 3 risk conditions over time. It is not a probability forecast, prediction or countdown.
Latest reading, not a current-day score
Current Direct Conflict data is awaiting its next verified source release.
- GPR Threat
- 1 Oct 2026
- Direct Conflict
- 31 Aug 2026
- Militarisation
- 2024 observation
Understand
Why the index is at 83.9
Every point is traceable to visible contributions. Nothing is hidden behind a black-box prediction.
Geopolitical threatGPR input on the score observation date
+57.3
Concurrent threat + conflictCo-elevation, not causal attribution
+16.6
Direct conflictUCDP Candidate coverage through 2026-08-31
+7.3
Strategic militarisation2024 complete P5 observation
+2.6
Compare
How unusual is 83.9?
The historical series turns a one-off number into context. At launch, visitors can compare the latest reading with 1-year, 2-year, 5-year and full-history views.
History explorerInteractive timeline, date lookup and 1Y / 2Y / 5Y / All views will use the generated historical dataset directly.
Explore historical WW3Risk
Monitor
What is happening since the latest index date?
Fast-moving evidence is monitored separately from score arithmetic. Candidates can prompt investigation without quietly adding points.
Scenario reviewNo approved strategic-regime scenario active
Reviewed evidence is limited; this is not a verified global negative.
Current awareness1 candidate under review
Current-awareness candidates remain separate from score arithmetic unless an approved component or scenario rule is satisfied.
Source freshness
GPR Threat1 Oct 2026
Direct Conflict31 Aug 2026
Militarisation2024
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For readers & researchersHistory
Explore how the index behaved across earlier crises and compare periods.
Explore history → For discovery & analysisResearchRead evidence-led analysis of index movements, historical comparisons and strategic developments.
Read research → For analysts & publishersData & APIHistorical series, structured feeds, widgets and API access are the professional path.
View data roadmap →Methodology
Three numerical signals. One explicit interaction.
The homepage explains enough to trust the reading. The full methodology page carries the formula, source provenance, categorical Nuclear states and scenario-floor logic.
Data & distributionBuilt to be cited, embedded and queried.
Historical data and the free branded widget are live. API, webhooks and commercial licensing are open for expressions of interest.