World War 3 risk history: WW3Risk over time
Explore World War 3 risk history through the WW3Risk index: see how observed strategic conditions changed across the modern reference period, compare crises, and inspect the score on specific dates.
Compare any period with the same model
The chart below uses every valid daily observation in the uploaded public history series. The 31 incomplete dates after 31 August are not plotted or carried forward.
For keyboard or assistive-technology use, enter a date above to retrieve its public WW3Risk value. Chart values are shown at the same one-decimal precision used by the public index.
Validated historical comparisons
These values come from the same approved provisional_v1 historical series. They are context points, not claims that one event alone caused the entire index reading.
What drove WW3Risk?
Monthly average contributions show how much of the index came from GPR Threat, Direct Conflict, their co-elevation, and the slower Strategic Militarisation backdrop. The four layers add back to the monthly average index.
Frequency and historical position
The same daily series shows how much of each year was spent in each public risk band, and where the latest reading sits in the complete historical distribution.
Time spent at each risk level
Share of valid days in each public band. 2026 is year-to-date through 31 August.
Where does 83.9 sit historically?
Distribution of all 6,087 valid daily readings, grouped in five-point score bins.
Keep the evidence free; sell the deeper assessment
The headline historical series stays public. Paid products can add interpretation and decision-useful depth without hiding the evidence needed to understand WW3Risk.
1Y, 2Y, 5Y and all-time views, date lookup, driver history and selected event annotations.
£29 reportOctober 2026 Strategic Risk ReportA 10-page snapshot of the 83.9 Severe reading, driver decomposition, historical position, scenario state, freshness and what to watch next.
Analyst · coming soonExports & research toolsStructured exports and deeper historical analysis when those products are launched. Register interest.