World War 3 scenarios and escalation thresholds
WW3Risk treats World War 3 scenarios as evidence-defined escalation states, not predictions. The continuous model handles ordinary variation, while a small number of objectively defined factual states can impose a minimum index level while active.
Two factual regimes currently have floors
A floor is a minimum, not a bonus, multiplier or probability. If the continuous score is already above the floor, it remains unchanged.
Requires two nuclear-armed state parties and confirmed direct interstate kinetic action. A score above 80 does not prove the predicate is active.
Requires strong evidence that a nuclear weapon was used in hostilities or deliberate attack. Testing is not equivalent to wartime use.
Active floors combine using max(). They never add to each other or to the continuous score.
Other candidate regimes remain unapproved
These concepts are tracked as methodology research but do not currently have approved floors.
Persistence criteria remain a methodological choice.
Requires a bounded treaty/applicability registry before production use.
The boundary from limited nuclear use remains unresolved.