How the WW3Risk geopolitical risk index is calculated
The WW3Risk geopolitical risk index is deliberately transparent: three numerical inputs, one explicit co-elevation term, categorical Nuclear states, and separate scenario floors for rare strategic discontinuities.
Three numerical signals, one interaction
The 0–100 inputs do not share a common unit. Their combination is an index construction, not a probability estimate.
Causal expanding percentile of daily geopolitical-threat observations. Principal standalone acute signal.
Causal percentile of complete-case P5 aggregate military burden, carried forward with observation age.
UCDP-based hurdle percentile. Covered zero remains zero; missing coverage remains missing.
Approved provisional continuous architecture
m = Militarisation / 100g = GPR / 100d = Direct Conflict / 100
b = 0.10m
a = 0.65g + 0.10d + 0.25gd
Continuous = 100 × [b + (1-b)a]
The g×d term means simultaneous global threat and conflict are present. It does not claim the conflict caused the GPR reading.
What does not go directly into the arithmetic
Several strategically important signals are deliberately kept categorical or diagnostic instead of being forced into arbitrary point scores.
Ordinal/categorical escalation states. No cardinal Nuclear score is approved.
Used to surface candidates for investigation and corroboration. Numeric contribution remains null.
Approved floors apply only when their factual predicates are active; floors never add together.
Missing does not mean zero
WW3Risk only calculates an exact continuous value when all required inputs are valid for the same date. A lagging Direct Conflict source is shown as incomplete coverage, not silently carried forward or converted to zero.